Iowa Democrats face long odds to regain their top spot ahead of the 2028 primaries

Ahead of the 2024 presidential primaries, Iowa Democrats launched a Hail Mary to save their status as an early nominating state. After the disastrous rollout of an app in 2020 that delayed the results of that year’s caucuses, the state party switched to a vote-by-mail primary and made its pitch alongside dozens of other states vying to go first. It also warned that moving Iowa out of first would give Republicans an opening to claim Democrats had abandoned the state. It didn’t work. And two years after the Democratic National Committee made South Carolina the first primary state, overhauled the early nominating state window and demoted Iowa, the future of Iowa’s Democratic caucuses looks bleaker than ever. Iowa must now compete against dozens of other states when the party begins its deliberations on the 2028 calendar, a process that could begin as early as later this year. The final makeup of the 2028 primary calendar will be critical to what strategies presidential campaigns employ and which candidates gain traction.